John Adlesich or the ascent of a health industry executive professional about healthcare industry trends: New supply chain models for new care settings. Health care futurists believe that by 2040, most care will be delivered at home, in outpatient settings or virtually. Adapting to this new way of care — in terms of supplies and delivery methods — will require relationships with different types of vendors, such as retailers, contract employees and technology providers. This is an exciting but huge challenge: how to reimagine supply chains to deliver non-hospital-based care in a safe, cost-effective and high-quality way at scale. Smarter, faster, predictive information. Expect to see more automation software and artificial intelligence (AI) in health care supply chains. In addition to freeing personnel from repetitive tasks, these technologies can assist decision-makers in identifying trends and providing resources to workers. For example, predictive analytics focused on population health within an organization or system could alert managers to trending disease states and their associated supply needs. Supply chain managers could use AI tools to master the new transportation logistics of getting supplies to widely dispersed home care settings and so on.

John Adlesich on healthcare industry trends in 2021: The new administration will also likely push to expand healthcare program funding, including ACA programs and value-based care, and expansion of coverage. The Senate may use the budget reconciliation process to push through a COVID-19 relief package and some healthcare-related policies. Budget reconciliation requires only a majority vote, as contrasted to a supermajority vote for regular legislation. However, budget reconciliation can only happen a couple of times per year, generally speaking, when the budget is up for approval, and is limited to budget-related items. Budget reconciliation pushed through some provisions of the ACA in 2010. While some of the ACA expansions, increased subsidies, and tax credits could occur through budget reconciliation, this process would not be available for bigger picture health policy issues that are unrelated to the federal budget. These bigger picture items include issues such as a public option, Medicare for all, and lowering the Medicare eligibility age to 60.

John Adlesich believes that 2021 is a crossroads year for the health industry. There will be particular momentum for programs that have bipartisan support, including payment policies that move away from fee-for-service reimbursement and toward models that drive lower-cost and higher-quality outcomes. The overall movement to value will get a shot in the arm from two principal forces in 2021: 1) the Biden Administration’s commitment to build on the ACA’s legacy by doubling down on alternative payment models and mandatory payment changes and 2) the pandemic. When it comes to policy, the new Administration will not need convincing that value-based care improves quality and reduces costs. Ample research shows that since the move to value began, overall health spending as a percent of GDP has slowed, cutting more than $600 billion out of the budget trajectory that was predicted in 2010. Because these programs are net savers, expanding their reach will be an important and immediate objective that could be used to offset some of the COVID-19 relief spending. To that end, we are likely to see Biden’s HHS make fee-for-service less attractive and push at least some mandatory alternative payment models. In addition, the Administration is also likely to move beyond endless testing of models, making proven programs permanent, creating added incentives to enable scale, and leading the way for private payers to follow suit with value-based programs of their own.

John Adlesich currently works as administrator at Marquis Companies. His latest healthcare industry experience includes positions as executive director at Powerback Rehabilitation Lafayette (Genesis Healthcare) between Aug 2020 – Jan 2021, administrator at Mesa Vista of Boulder between Mar 2019 – Aug 2020, chief executive officer at Sedgwick County Memorial Hospital between Jul 2018 – Feb 2019, interim chief operating officer at Toiyabe Indian Health Project between Mar 2018 – Jun 2018.